Alumina Weekly Operation Slightly Declined, Surplus Pattern Unchanged with Spot Prices Continuing to Drop [SMM Alumina Weekly Review]

SMM Sep. 4:

Price review:

As of Thursday, the SMM alumina index stood at 3,168.46 yuan/mt, down 57.66 yuan/mt WoW. Prices in Shandong were quoted at 3,100-3,140 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW; Henan at 3,140-3,180 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi at 3,100-3,180 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi at 3,240-3,300 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW; Guizhou at 3,250-3,310 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt WoW; Bayuquan remained flat WoW at 3,210-3,290 yuan/mt.

Overseas market: As of Sep. 4, 2025, FOB Western Australia alumina was priced at $368/mt, with ocean freight rate at $22.55/mt and USD/CNY selling rate around 7.16, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 3,240.48 yuan/mt, 72.02 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index. The import window remained closed. No spot alumina transactions were reported overseas this week.

Domestic market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday, China's total metallurgical-grade alumina capacity reached 110.32 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 89.96 million mt/year. The national alumina operating rate fell 0.89 percentage points WoW to 81.55%, mainly due to reduced roasting furnace loads at some plants undergoing maintenance. Regional operating rates were: Shandong flat WoW at 91.15%; Shanxi flat WoW at 77.56%; Henan down 2.38 percentage points WoW to 58.69%; Guangxi flat WoW at 89.44%; Guizhou down 11.67 percentage points WoW to 66.67%.

Spot market: Spot transactions were sluggish this week, with sporadic deals showing significant discounts against online prices, driving spot prices lower. Only one smelter tender was reported in north China, with transaction price below 3,100 yuan/mt ex-Shanxi; one spot deal was recorded in south China at around 3,260 yuan/mt.

Overall, alumina fundamentals remained in surplus. Although operating capacity declined this week, the reduction was insufficient to reverse the surplus, as the decrease primarily stemmed from routine maintenance lowering roasting furnace loads, with limited long-term impact on production. Aluminum smelters maintained relatively high alumina raw material inventories at 2.899 million mt this week, weakening spot procurement interest. Sellers also lowered their price expectations. Amid the surplus situation, spot alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the short term. Subsequent attention should be paid to the cost profitability of alumina enterprises and the dynamics of operating capacity.

Source: SMM